Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
