Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
